STUPID STUPID STUPID. While challenging negotiations continue to get property tax relief passed in the Indiana legislature, one side of the political aisle has apparently lost their minds. This week Indina House Republicans were attempting to add numerous amendments including a same sex marriage ban into the Governor's proposed tax relief bill that would cap taxes on a residence at 1% of it's assessed value. Whether or not you are for a ban on same sex marriage has nothing to do with a bill to try and keep people from getting kicked out of their homes from excessive taxation! Come on people, get a brain. Stop playing these idiotic games and get this passed before the session runs out and further pain is inflicted on an already over taxed public. If you're curious, you can use this link and find out how the Governor's tax plan would reduce your property taxes.

Think those interest rate cuts by the Fed are going to have an impact? After a 1.25% reduction, here's the most likely time line on when the rate cuts may actually help.

It's All in the Head.....
There are two major issues facing our current real estate market both locally and nationally if we are to see growth resume in 2008. The first, which we cannot change is oversupply. There have been over 100,000 homes built in the last 10 years in the greater Indianapolis area. That's one NEW home built for every 3 PREEXISTING households. In a word, ridiculous.

The second issue that we can change is psychology. The constant drum beat of bad news has kept many would be purchasers on the sidelines. As we look at the national and local housing inventories, we may be seeing the very early stages of a turn. The national numbers listed in the graphic below are similar to our Indy data right now and that seems to indicate we are near the top and perhaps on our way down in total homes on the market. The new and existing inventories are dipping....which is what we have needed for over a year.

If this trend continues over the next several months, we may well see that overall change in supply that has boat-anchored our market over late 2006 and all of 2007. Couple that with a stimulus package from the federal government, interest rate reductions and property tax relief and you have the makings of a bona fied recovery. At least that's what I'm hoping for relative to our clients as I pace my home at 3 am each night.

So if you must sell or desire to sell, defined by motivation and means to meet the market's demand for your property, what are the most significant things you need to do to get your property on the market? That's the topic for NEXT week's Real Estate Minute online Monday February 3, 2008.

Finally a quick summary of the first 25 days of 2008 and how it compares to early 2007. It's a small sample but still reflects a trend in the market. The geography included all of southern Hamilton County and Northern tier of Marion County including Lawrence, Washington, Pike, Clay, Delaware and Fall Creek Townships.

Pending sales from 1/1/07 to 1/25/07 511

Pending sales from 1/1/08 to 1/25/08 389

(2008 sales in units are 23.9% below 2007 for the same time period)

Update 1/24.....The Governor's property tax reduction plan passed through the Indiana House headed for the state Senate on Thursday. If it gets through the Senate and signed, it would limit taxes to 1% of a home's assessed value per year. It was a bipartisan effort and is badly needed to help property values in Indiana. We'e should have a better idea on it's final fate next week.

Update 1/23....another trickle of good news! On this morning's Today Show Suze Orman added her 2 cents about how now was a great time to buy a home. I know it's just Suze Orman but it's still a national platform speading the word that homeowners and potential sellers need. Since the current market challenges are by and large psychological in nature, good news is welcome on any media stage. Aside from Tuesday's rate reduction, many market experts are expecting another 3/4 point rate cut during the week of January 28, 2008. IF that occurs, it would be the most significant reduction in more than 50 years.

The Federal Reserve cut the prime lending rate 3/4 of a point on 1/22 in an emergency session. The Fed is looking to stave off a recession that the real estate industry has been telling them is coming for nearly a year. Thanks for listening Fed Governors, albeit MONTHS after the fact. Had you been paying attention last summer perhaps some of this pain could have been avoided. It will take some time for it to affect retail mortgage rates, however. While you're enjoying that...here's The Real Estate Minute for the week of 1/21/08 which looks backwards, forwards and to Pluto.



This Week's Bonus Topic: How far should municipalities go to encourage 'public' projects in a community?


Carmel has spent millions in it's quest to become a city of destination and quality lifestyle with it's currently being constructed Performing Arts Center and it's Arts and Design District. The City of Indianapolis has numerous such projects including one of the newest, the Cultural Trail. Speedway, Greenwood and several other suburbs are working on civic improvements as well. The ever increasing question has become how much taxpayer or for that matter private money should be spent in developing these types of projects in order to improve quality of life? Further, should communities spend this money with an 'if you build it, they will come mentality'? By this I mean should these projects be done with the intent of drawing in future tax dollars to fund already completed improvements. The desire to have our communities raise their quality of life has ignited a debate over how much is too much when it comes to spending tax dollars to 'seed' an area's improvements in lifestyle. At no point in our area's history has this become more apparent than now when the property tax debate has raged on about what monies should be spent where both today and in the future. It's clear that our insane property tax increase of '07 will get resolved to a degree this Spring. What isn't clear as to what financial sacrifices we'll be willing to make in the future to fund those quality of life improvements.
Questions or comments....you can always find me here:
317-848-GREG (4734) or Greg@GregCooper.com

Update 1/20/2008.....OK....so I saw Jim Cramer of Mad Money on CNBC last night on an interview program and he reiterated his belief that now was a great time to buy real estate. He stated "in some cases, it may be the best time in 10-15 years to buy." I'm withholding opinion until I see him say it repeatedly but he may actually believe the market has turned. Since this is by and large a MEDIA driven housing problem, having the media turn and be positive may be a sign the up side is coming....

1/18/2008....The Governor's tax relief bill was passed out of the powerful Indiana House Ways & Means committee on 1/17 by a unamimous 24-0 vote. It was considered without amendments and will go on to the Indiana House of Representatives for a vote. Essentially it would cap Indiana residential property tax payments at 1% of the value and place a higher burden on business.


UPDATE 1/17/2008.......Jim Cramer, host of CNBC'S Mad Money actually said on the Today Show that right now 'people should buy a house.' Here's a guy who's been bashing real estate for months and this morning he said two years from now we'd all regret not having bought a home during this time. Somewhere there's a skiff of ice on the lake in hell.

This is the The Real Estate Minute for the week of January 14th, 2008 including good news on interest rates, the secret to selling a home in a challenging market and real estate becomes more important than sex (say what?)...



Next week the video update will include the most bizzarre moment so far from the Indiana legislature regarding the property tax debate. Warning....it involves discussion of traveling to Pluto. I'll have it online here on Monday the 21st.

We also said goodbye to an old friend this week as the Colts played their final game at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. My thanks to the great people at First Indiana for their hospitality during the game. I had a great view of Archie Manning, Ashley Manning and Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN who were in the suite immediatly next to ours. I also had a great view of the game, which wasn't so entertaining. From the first Colts game I saw at the dome in 1984 against the Jets to the final one against the Chargers, there's been some great history. Let's hope Lucas Oil brings us as much fun and good times as well. Indiana has invested most of a BILLION dollars in a new retractable roof stadium and convention center that should help our local economy for years to come.


Conversation overheard as I pursued my early morning caffeine:
CLERK: How are you today maam?
Female Customer: Well I'm on the right side of the grass so that's good I suppose."
CLERK: ...but if were on the wrong side of the grass, at least we'd be able to sleep longer."

I guess we could have labled this "where reality and optimism collide."

Questions....comments.....contact....are here:
Greg@GregCooper.com or 317-848-GREG (4734).

Here it comes...2008 is already on us. Subprime mortgage messes, property taxes, over supply of homes, changing Indiana property value...take your pick. It's all going to affect real estate in 2008 and what could be more exciting than hearing me talk about it? For just over a minute and a half, peer into the crystal ball with me and find out. For those of you dozing off during the video there will be a vitual class monitor walking the digital aisles with a ruler to keep your attention. As you may notice even though this is factual information, one can't take themself too seriously. On January 21, I'll have a video "state of the market" that will provide an overall summary and some specific predictions as to where we're headed this year.




As always if you have comments or questions, here's where to find me:

Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734)

Giving Thanks

2007 has brought many opportunities to The Richwine Group.....from the former Christel Dehaan residence that closed by mid 2007.....




....to this amazing 40 acre property in west Clay Township, also recognized as the former Hilbert Mansion. Could there be a new owner in this home's future?




The former Hilbert Estate has been rumored to be sold on multiple occasions. No matter what you read anywhere, there has been no sale to date on the former Hibert residence at 1143 West 116th Street in Carmel, Indiana.

Below is another one of the Indiana and the midwest's finest estates now also offered by the The Richwine Group. It is a stunning Geist Lake area property with nearly 6 acres on the secluded northern shore.



We have been blessed with great success again in 2007. We look forward to serving the Indianapolis area for years to come thanks to the great people we are privileged to work with. Thank you and have a joyous holiday season!

Greg Cooper 317.848.GREG(4734) or greg@gregcooper.com