From my post on AGENTGENIUS.com this week.....thoughts on the $8000 first time homebuyer credit...and why it's time has come and soon must go.

Homebuyercredit from GregCooper on Vimeo.

The LOCAL SLICE has our taxing authorities directly in the cross hairs. Consumers had better pay extra close attention and here's why:

Admiral James Stockdale and The Aqua-Holic.....


I know....I know....stop being so negative Greg. Listen, I want things to be better.....a LOT better but overcoming an enormous fall like our financial markets took last year will take time and some discomfort. It's not that we aren't better off...we are but we're not yet going up yet. I believe we must be 100% forthright in our assessments of where things are if we want to have credibility with consumers. So (doing my best Forrest Gump), we're less bad and that's good.

You see it everyday....the rush to proclaim the next big thing. Whether it's a super star athlete, a sports team that's going to be a champion or the news media on announcing our economy in recovery. Everybody wants to be first to tell the story and why not? Everyone wants to hear good news and be associated with a positive tale. Considering that my business (real estate) has constantly been accused of spinning information to benefit our industry I'm just not going there. We are better off than a year ago and some positive signs are out there but let's not forget that unemployment is still at staggering levels and all of the money that's been spent to stimulate, massage, invigorate, caress and boost our economy will eventually have to be paid back. The way you do that is by raising interest rates and taxes, neither of which is going to grow an economy. In essence things are better....with an asterisk which means that we have quite a ways to go. In the meantime appreciate those things that truly matter in your life because there's a lot of pain and challenge for many of our fellow Americans. Oh....and if you are going to be in the real estate market, make it about a place to benefit and enhance the lives of you and your families. The days of looking at home ownership like a quick buck artist are over. It's time we all started looking at things with a bit more perspective...and it starts with those of us who are directly involved in the process.

With the 2ND half just underway here are some key points to watch for in the coming months in Today's New World Of Real Estate.



INTEREST RATES are holding fairly steady with conventional rates hovering in the mid 5's and jumbo loans in the 7.5-8.0% range.

APPRAISALS are still a nightmare with the new regs that have kicked in as of May 1. The Federal Government in yet another attempt to 'fix' what's wrong with the housing market now requires stiffer rules on appraisers and how, where, what, etc. they do their jobs. As per most Fed dabbling, the problems are worse than ever.

CAP AND TRADE which is one of the most idiotic proposals EVER relative to the housing market has passed (I SAID PASSED) the U.S. House and will now move on to the Senate. If it passes there and is signed into law it will single handedly destroy half or MORE of the equity that American homeowners have. In fact, I'll have a new VIDEO BLOG coming this week about just that subject.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? DONATIONS?
317-848-GREG (4734) or Greg@GregCooper.com.

A HUGE thanks to Mike Lyon of DoYouConvert.com for allowing us to share this. Tribes author Seth Godin talking about the future for homebuilders at the PCBC 2009 conference where Seth gave the keynote. Highlights of the keynote are on Mike's site and they are great!

This is a great year for consumers to buy new construction residences, especially spec homes. With so few homes being built this year, they will fare very well as resales in the years to come. Ooops....sorry Seth....wrong mindset (watch video).

NON RELATED....Greg will be shooting for HGTV's More Bang For Your Buck this Friday and Saturday in Indianapolis. We'll be shooting three kitchens that have recently been renovated. The episode will air this Fall on HGTV and we'll post air dates as they become available. We'll also have an updated blog post over this coming weekend about the shoot and show as a whole!

Finally....May market data is out. It still is very weak. As we joked to several people we could just change the month at the top of the report and it would look pretty much the same. If you would like a copy please email greg@gregcooper.com.

A common pitfall of seasonal marketing.

We're all going to be better consumers in this economy....and we'll have to be. If you're a seller in Today's New World of Real Estate, beware this pitfall.....



Meanwhile back at the real estate ranch, the local data is in today.....and it may require an extra potent adult beverage to stomach. I'll be posting them shortly....so at leaast you've got a little time to prepare.

A weird open house moment....

The most profound moment at my open house last Sunday came when a prospective buyer shared with me one of the lone bright spots of the current downturn. She believes that we will all have to become better consumers when it came to our investments. Kudos Diane...VERY true. The weirdest moment? Well here you go..........




OT......there's a GREAT new tool out there for keeping track of just about anything from crime in your area to shopping, store deals, entertainment to a variety of news updates. It's FREE (nice) and you can also create your own search terms that can be updated and sent to you at http://www.trackle.com/. I'm getting ready to set up a search for where my 14 year old is after the movies on Friday and Saturday nights!

Distracted? Having trouble focusing? Time to find your focus screen.






The SINGLE biggest challenge facing the real estate market in the next 12-18 months.

The single biggest challenge in the coming months won't be what it's been for '07 and '08. Market conditions over the last 2 years while painful, were much more finite. When supply (a property at a given price) met demand (what a buyer was willing to pay), we had a sale (a true established value). We're going to need to relearn the market as things begin to move in the other direction.

Listen to the archive of Greg on WIBC, Indianapolis from 2/25.

There's been a Rod Serling sighting.

At some point it just gets off the wall silly. It would be funny if it weren't about such incredibly large sums of cash and disappearing equity. Every month feels like the last when the new housing numbers come out. More bad news. Little to be optimistic about. It certainly feels surrreal, like we've entered into our own 'Twilight Zone.'

The newest report on housing has prices of U.S. single-family homes plunging 18.5 percent in December from a year earlier as the monthly pace accelerated, according to a Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.5 percent in December from November, compared with a 2.3 percent decline in the previous period, S&P said in a statement. "There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data," David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, said in the statement. "Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path." In a separate index, home prices depreciated at a 18.2 percent pace in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, for the largest drop since the series began 21 years ago, it said. From the housing market peak in the second quarter of 2006, home prices have plummeted 26.7 percent, it said.

As for the Stimulus, don't count on that making a difference. While there was an $8000 tax credit for 1st time home buyers, the reality is congress, in all it's brilliance, totally stripped out the $15,000 tax credit that would have applied to ALL home buyers. That would have made a difference. The first time home buyer's credit, while nice, will have little effect on the overall market. So much for fixing housing first. If it's true that housing leads us into recessions and out of those same recessions, we're still waiting for the residential General to start marching back up the hill. Right now he's no where in sight.

So once again class, what does it all mean? As I've said on the radio a thousand times, it remains a great time to buy with incredible interest rates available for many home buyers. In five years you will look back and feel you've made one of the best investments of your life. Not in two years, five.

As for home sellers, lower your expectations, your prices and your uside down statues into the ground because sports fans, you're going to need all the help you can get. It is the most challenging time to sell a home since the mid 1960's. Not even the early 80's were this bad. Sure we had high interest rates but we didn't have the bank failures and the numerous other factors working against us.

Now we have excessive inventory, foreclosures, unemployment, etc., all affecting housing. There's also the inflation monster which will be sure to rear it's ugly head in the coming few years. If you can survive the moat full of monsters to buy a home right now, you may just see 2015 arrive with a pile of equity in your property. Be warned, getting there will be tough. If you look closely, you may even see Mr. Serling along the way.

Five Questions To Contemplate For March of 2009

1) With the current market environment, should you be looking at your home as a long term residence or considering a change?

2) What should I do or not do with my current mortgage commitment?

3) Should I be investing additional money in updating my home?

4) Will my home appreciate in Today's New World Of Real Estate?

5) Is real estate the best investment for my future?

Think about these things relative to where you live and your future. We'll be exploring them further as February evaporates and we head for the Ides of March in Today's New World of Real Estate.

Today's Lesson From Tom Peters.com:
(yes, the guy who co wrote In Search of Excellence and many other phenomenal things).


"It" (the current economic mess) is 100% about psychology. Fixes must first and second and third and fourth be directly aimed at our inherent irrationality—times ten in periods of high stress, and at least as true of the "bestest and brightest" as of the rest of us.


Thank you Tom. Class dismissed. See you all next week.

Hear Greg on WIBC from 1/26/2009 HERE.

Read Greg's Interview in the Indianapolis Business Journal HERE.



It's Not Bad News. It's
Just the News.

If anyone tells you the 'for sale' home inventory is going to shrink this year, tell them to do some more homework. While the resale active market will see some up and down over the next 11 months, one thing is for certain: We ain't seen nothing yet (thank you Randy Bachman).

We're about to experience a torrent of lender owned or controlled properties hitting the market. The value of REO properties on the books of FDIC banks surged nearly 30% from the late 3rd quarter of 2008 through the 4th quarter. Those properties are going to be unleashed on markets around the country now that the TARP efforts have been so seemingly convoluted and are not being used to truly combat the foreclosure problems. Repossessions by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have blown sky high and in fact they had nearly 100,000 homes in their inventory at the end of September of 2008. With a moratorium on take backs over the holidays that expiring at the end of January by the nation's two big quasi lenders, there will most certainly be more foreclosures in the mix.

So this sounds like horrid news. Nope. It's just the factual reality of where the market is. As I continue to believe, as far as the market goes off track, there are opportunities that are every bit as positive. The media primarily uses information to take a position. I get that. But truth in advertising is a two way street. Look, it is a very challenging time for home sellers. The news coming out of Washington is getting more and more diluted each day for what the past/present bailouts mean. Forget the bailouts. Here's what it means for you and I: If we're selling doing so requires a major reality check on what the market will offer for your home. If you're buying there is plenty of mortgage money available and you are probably going to make a stunning buy in terms of overall value. Fear is driving the market now. You don't need to be afraid of making a purchase if you get good representation and understand this is NOT a short term investment. In this market the 'Flip My House' mindset is tanatamount to 'Take My Money'. Avoid that methodology and if you are in a position to do so, go ahead and make the home purchase you've been contemplating. In five years that's one thing you will be able to count on as being a 'no brainer.'

Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com or
317.848.GREG (4734)

For those of you who insist on clinging to your newspaper, broadcast and glossy magazine marketing to find your way, here's a little reality check from the front......

Where are the marketing dollars being spent to promote your property? Big splashy ads in the Sunday paper are not what they're cracked up to be. Marketing guru Gary Vaynerchuk has a few suggestions on the perception versus reality of what actually drives results in Today's New World Of Real Estate....and a LOT of other places.






Want to see how our federal officials are squandering our 'bailout/rescue' money? Mark Cuban has played a role in creating BailoutSleuth.com to watch the dollars roll out into the wind. One can only look at this every so often for fear of being totally sick to one's stomach!

Conversation Of
The Week:

Expired Listing Seller: "I'd like to speak with you about listing my home"

Me: "Certainly....tell me about your property's history"

ELS: "Well it's been for sale for a year with no showings and no price adjustments."

Me: "Are you aware of the available inventory, how many homes have sold in your price point and location?"

ELS: "No....but I built homes for several decades and I know what this property's worth."

Me: "Have you had an appraisal?"

ELS: "No....by the way you're not going to be one of those agents that keeps telling me to lower my price, are you?"

Me: "Why would I actually want to waste your time with nonsense about supply and demand, inventory absorption and silly little things like how buyers actually feel about your property?"

ELS: "Good....I think we're going to get along just fine...when can you come out?"

Me: "I can be there just after nine on Monday, July 21st, 2011...about the time the market actually recognizes your price. Looking forward to seeing you. One more question Mister ELS....are you aware that we're in the most challenging real estate market since the '70's?"

ELS: "No but I've got the entire Pable Cruise collection on vinyl. I loved the '70's!"

To think some people believe we Realtors are overpaid.

Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734)

A few thoughts for President Obama

On Monday night October 6, I sat in on a radio economic round table (listen) hosted by WIBC's Steve Simpson with a number of individuals who are far more versed at the bigger picture than I am. Denny Smith, a co founder of the Mutual Fund Store in Indianapolis; Linda Conti, vice president of wealth management of David A. Noyes company, business writer John Ketzenberger of the Indianapolis Star, Dr. Catherine Bonser-Neal of IU's Kelley School of business and yours truly were voicing our opinions on all things economic on 93.1 WIBC, Indianapolis. From the inside I must say it was a fascinating discussion. The summary of it all which I hope our next president hears through the noise that he will be bombarded with is this:

Don't raise taxes.

Don't raise taxes anywhere on anyone at any time during your first term if you hope to have a second. I understand you feel that high earning individuals should pay more. This is not a philosophical plea. This is factual, empirical, statistical, uncomfortable.

Don't raise taxes.

We can argue all day long about why we're in the mess we're in but one of the opinions that came through loud and clear last night from this very wise group of people for whomever the next president is was:

Don't raise taxes or you may crush our economy.

Senator Obama many people liken you to another charismatic leader we once had, John Kennedy. President Kennedy made a historic speech to the New York economic club in 1962 that still resonates today. His major point was this:

"The final and best means of strengthening demand among consumers and business is to reduce the burden on private income and the deterrents to private initiative which are imposed by our present tax system — and this administration pledged itself last summer to an across-the-board, top-to-bottom cut in personal and corporate income taxes"

Please take a moment and read the entire text of one of the more prolific economic speeches ever delivered in our country. Senator Obama despite your desire to raise taxes as you've stated, we can only hope you will defer to the greater good of our populace and at the very least keep things where they are. There's going to be a LOT of pain over the next several months. Let's not add to it.

Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734)

Have We Lost An Entire Generation of Home Buyers?

I worry a lot.

This meltdown, crash, near depression or (insert your own apocalyptic adjective here) of our economy has got me wondering about the Y generation (you may call them millenials or echo boomers). I've been thinking for some time about the whole concept of our disposable society and the speed of change as it relates to home ownership. It has seemed to me that more and more there's a group of people out there who aspire less to have roots then to have an exit strategy.

It hit me in 2007 when I took a trip to Palo Alto to be a part of a California company's relocation to the Indianapolis area. I was a part of their town hall meeting when they were trying to emphasize the positives of their plant moving several thousand miles east. While one of the positives of the move was certainly housing affordability (Palo Alto is a rather ritzy end of the planet to call home compared to Indy), a number of the attendees were non plused. Yes, there was a lot of angst given that their lives were going to be uprooted. Yet, it was more than that. I got the sense from a number of their best and brightest that owning a home versus renting anywhere was an absolute 'who cares.' It wasn't that they didn't have motivation given the astronomical rent most of these people were paying to share a flat and a bathroom with several absolute strangers in their area. You would think that owning your own 1700 square foot home for HALF of what they were paying to rent with room mates would have appealed to them. It seemed that a number of them were simply not interested. These were bright , aggressive people many among them engineers and other highly educated professionals who had no predisposition other than owning a home was not a priority.

While that trip may have been the starting point, it's been out there a great deal lately and perhaps we 30 and 40 somethings are at least partly to blame. Our culture is more and more of the mindset that walking away from things when they wear out our interest. It's the norm rather than the exception. Spouses, jobs, personal property, economic responsibilities, pets - you name it. Any more if people are tired of it, out it goes. It seems that many of our current young adult generation has just skipped the middle man and decided to keep the fewest roots possible, just in case they get fatigued, like they do with the latest Wii game, with their surroundings.

The home ownership roller coaster started about the time the century turned. Getting a mortgage became like eating at a fast food joint. Place your order, drive around and voila! You're a home owner! Now the tide will flow at an even faster ebb away from ownership. That mindset may increase because we have raised an entire generation of people to dispose of anything they're tired of coupled with the fact that until recently they didn't need savings, a down payment or even significant job stability to buy property. This new world of home ownership is a recipe for a huge cultural, economic change away from said ownership.

Does this generation have the discipline, motivation or even the interest to get back to the future by changing it's ways and actually saving for a house as credit gets cranked down? Will they put off the flat screen TV and latest hot car long enough to think about owning real estate?

Fifteen and twenty percent down payments are a big commit from anyone...let alone a generation that's never really had to make that choice. In the end they ultimately may no longer be interested in doing so.

Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734)

Dr. Ruth Wants To Move To Indiana.

So does Dr. Phil, Dr. Drew and Dr. Bombay. Hulk Hogan is very high on the Hoosier state as is a very famous equine and his owner (Wilburrrrrrr). You see every day we get requests for information from very famous people who inquire about various homes available in Indiana. It's not that the noted sex therapist, TV host, MTV therapist, professional wrestler or 60's icon are actually thinking of moving here.They are simply regular people who use the identiy of a famous person as they request information about one of the more higher profile residences we routinely market. Some just want good old fashioned general home information without all the encumbrances that dealing with a broker can entail. In summary they want anonymity. For those who want a free ticket in to the former Hilbert Estate please don't email me this: "Oh I swear Greg, what are you thinking by not taking Robin and I through there? Maybe she wouldn't have left old Dr. Phil if you had...." Trust us....we've heard it all before. From professional female wrestlers with the WWE to various television personalities to dead animals from the '60's, Alex, we've heard stories you cannot imagine.
It's not that we're being unkind, mind you. There are numerous legal, time constraint, never ending tour guide issues that are associated with that property as well as Reggie Miller's Geist area home. There are simply not enough hours in a day, week, month or career to do that.
You may be one of those who actually wants the information on a home or piece of ground and you simply want to be anonymous. That we understand. If at the end of the day, that's what you wish to accomplish, just give us a blind email box and we'll get you exactly what you need, no questions asked. We will be happy to treat you with total respect and
confidentiality if you would please do the same on our end. While the tenor of this post is trite, the reality isn't. In this challenging market, there are THOUSANDS of scam artists or worse who are preying on people's fears and desperation who would do harm to us or one of our clients if we weren't vigilant. Regrettably I was witness to a situation where a seller actually took his own life out of that desperation this year because of the horrid, intentional behavior of a scam artist acting as a buyer. In the end please just shoot straight with us and we'll respond in kind. It will provide with a much more positive environment for all of us, including Oprah, whose IM I'm receiving right now.

Sellers - here's your sign.

In part two of here's your sign, I'll share a bit of data, a dash of reality and a cup full of philosophy all mixed with a hideous amount of cliche. If you haven't suffered an alliterative dry heave yet, read on. First it's the sellers turn to digest reality.

In the previous post of here's your sign, we looked at the stocks of national home builders and projected forward into 2009. Given past performance, it appears we may well be headed for a housing bottom shortly with a potential recovery cycle moving forward next year. I can already hear the giddy squeals of home sellers across America. "If we can just hold out, we can get more for our home!"

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Any seller who adopts that mind set will probably cost themselves tens of thousands of dollars rather than reaping any positive reward. In anticipating a possible beginning to the recovery some time in 2009, we are hoping against a mountain of bad geopolitical possibilities that we're right.

If Iran gets testy, if Russia decides to take back another former Soviet state, if oil goes on an upward rampage, if our new president inplements some new policy that further quashes our economy.....all bets are off.

If our already fragile banking system takes any more severe hits, if too many of builders either custom or track get overly aggressive in adding inventory, if interest rates trek higher.....all bets are off.

Of course these are all national and international issues that don't even begin to tackle the local problems that plague the Indianapolis area such as the property tax issue that won't fully diminish until 2010 for Marion County. Add in changing business environments and ever evolving home buyer tastes and there are still plenty of cold water to throw on a recovery.

In short there are a multitude of factors that could change the path of any recovery over night. If you have to sell or if you want to take advantage of great buying opportunities as a 'move up' homeowner, then the selling equation has NOT CHANGED. You must still be incredibly aggressive in pricing your property to have any chance of getting it sold. Being clueless because you still think YOUR HOME is the one that will defy the odds and sell despite the ridiculous inventory will not get you across the finish line. Get you home priced aggressively NOW or risk spending another winter on the sidelines without a sale.

Every day we talk to sellers that think they just need a Realtor that just pushes a little harder despite a 60 month supply of homes in their price point. Those are the homes that will burn another 365 days on the market for buyers to beat them up with next year. Price is everything. Learn it. Live it. Believe it.....or be a Chicago Cubs fan and 'wait 'til next year.'

Part 3 of Here's Your Sign for home buyers wil be online Friday September 5!

Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734)