In part two of here's your sign, I'll share a bit of data, a dash of reality and a cup full of philosophy all mixed with a hideous amount of cliche. If you haven't suffered an alliterative dry heave yet, read on. First it's the sellers turn to digest reality.In the previous post of here's your sign, we looked at the stocks of national home builders and projected forward into 2009. Given past performance, it appears we may well be headed for a housing bottom shortly with a potential recovery cycle moving forward next year. I can already hear the giddy squeals of home sellers across America. "If we can just hold out, we can get more for our home!"
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
Any seller who adopts that mind set will probably cost themselves tens of thousands of dollars rather than reaping any positive reward. In anticipating a possible beginning to the recovery some time in 2009, we are hoping against a mountain of bad geopolitical possibilities that we're right.
If Iran gets testy, if Russia decides to take back another former Soviet state, if oil goes on an upward rampage, if our new president inplements some new policy that further quashes our economy.....all bets are off.
If our already fragile banking system takes any more severe hits, if too many of builders either custom or track get overly aggressive in adding inventory, if interest rates trek higher.....all bets are off.
Of course these are all national and international issues that don't even begin to tackle the local problems that plague the Indianapolis area such as the property tax issue that won't fully diminish until 2010 for Marion County. Add in changing business environments and ever evolving home buyer tastes and there are still plenty of cold water to throw on a recovery.
In short there are a multitude of factors that could change the path of any recovery over night. If you have to sell or if you want to take advantage of great buying opportunities as a 'move up' homeowner, then the selling equation has NOT CHANGED. You must still be incredibly aggressive in pricing your property to have any chance of getting it sold. Being clueless because you still think YOUR HOME is the one that will defy the odds and sell despite the ridiculous inventory will not get you across the finish line. Get you home priced aggressively NOW or risk spending another winter on the sidelines without a sale.
Every day we talk to sellers that think they just need a Realtor that just pushes a little harder despite a 60 month supply of homes in their price point. Those are the homes that will burn another 365 days on the market for buyers to beat them up with next year. Price is everything. Learn it. Live it. Believe it.....or be a Chicago Cubs fan and 'wait 'til next year.'
Part 3 of Here's Your Sign for home buyers wil be online Friday September 5!
Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734)
