Greg's video from TrueGotham.com can be seen HERE. The real question of the day is will the first time home buyer credit stay or go? Lots of opinions...here's what will influence it's future along with the stupid real estate moment of the week:




Want more proof that we're not out of the woods yet? Foreclosure filings are up again nationally by 7% with 1 in every 355 homeowners being in foreclosure according to RealtyTrac. "Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we're seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions," RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer James Saccacio said in a press release.

Look friends....it's getting 'less bad' if that's a correct way to put it but we are not yet seeing value growth and certainly not seeing the end of decline above $600K and up. We're a LONG way from having that market segment recover.

Additionally the loan modification programs are NOT working. Through July only 9% of the 2.7 million 60 day or longer delinquent loans had been approved for modification. The Obama administration had hoped for that number to be much higher eventually giving relief to millions of home owners. The reason it's not moving faster? Lenders are making far too much in late and delinquent fees to really want any modification. It's on home owners to make this happen. Those who are persistent will have a chance to save their homes but it will take patience.

A common pitfall of seasonal marketing.

We're all going to be better consumers in this economy....and we'll have to be. If you're a seller in Today's New World of Real Estate, beware this pitfall.....



Meanwhile back at the real estate ranch, the local data is in today.....and it may require an extra potent adult beverage to stomach. I'll be posting them shortly....so at leaast you've got a little time to prepare.

A weird open house moment....

The most profound moment at my open house last Sunday came when a prospective buyer shared with me one of the lone bright spots of the current downturn. She believes that we will all have to become better consumers when it came to our investments. Kudos Diane...VERY true. The weirdest moment? Well here you go..........




OT......there's a GREAT new tool out there for keeping track of just about anything from crime in your area to shopping, store deals, entertainment to a variety of news updates. It's FREE (nice) and you can also create your own search terms that can be updated and sent to you at http://www.trackle.com/. I'm getting ready to set up a search for where my 14 year old is after the movies on Friday and Saturday nights!

The single biggest challenge in the coming months won't be what it's been for '07 and '08. Market conditions over the last 2 years while painful, were much more finite. When supply (a property at a given price) met demand (what a buyer was willing to pay), we had a sale (a true established value). We're going to need to relearn the market as things begin to move in the other direction.

Listen to Greg on WIBC, Indy from 4/8/ HERE.

So it's April....and as we head in the second quarter of 2009, it's time to take stock of where we've been and peer into the crystal ball a bit as well.




Have a different expereince? Love to hear from you!


If you missed the Transparency video....here you go!

Greg LIVE on WIBC 3/30 can be heard in it's entirety HERE.

The new market stats are in.....and they have a LOT of room for improvement. Better days are ahead but they were very challenged in the last 90 days.





Pricing and valuation, while painful, are not that complicated in Today's New World Of Real Estate:

**Greg will be on 93.1 FM, WIBC on Monday March 29th talking the latest live, local and late breaking housing numbers to be released 3/29!! (streaming @ www.wibc.com)


Remember 10th grade economics....where simple supply and demand ruled the day? Here are a few thoughts on supply and demand relative to value in Today's New World of Real Estate:

Just the Facts, Ma'am.

10 weeks into 2009 and we have some interesting data to start the year. The sales market has changed dramatically and is continuing to do so. The first time home buyer credit is having an impact on the market, but only for the actual first time home buyer, and not for the move up market.

Here's a look at the data for 2009 through early March for the entire 13 county metro Indianapolis area:

• nearly 50% of all homes sold were under $100,000
• 93% of all homes sold were under $300,000
• 95% of all homes sold were under $500,000
• 99% of all homes sold were under $1,000,000
• less than .06% of all homes sold were over $1,000,000

A major issue in this data starts with the low end of the market, or the first time home buyer. Of those homes under $100,000, over 50% of those were foreclosures. That tells us that of the owners of those homes under $100K, only half potentially went on to actually buy another property. That's why the sales numbers above $300K are so weak. What's selling is simply foreclosure inventory. While that's good and needs to happen, it tells us we are very VERY early in the recovery process if at all. Until the foreclosure inventory is absorbed and the foreclosure rate slows, we not recognize any value increase in the higher price points above 300K. At the moment we are simply absorbing unsold inventory. That inventory is the active inventory, not the secondary inventory which I would define as the complete set of homes that are waiting for any type of sign the market is recovering before coming back for sale. In other words we have several years of overall inventory to absorb before values begin to grow. If you're any type of buyer, this is good news because it means you are going to have opportunity to make a great buy for some time to come. Selling, will remain a big challenge for at least the next 24 months in our market.

Fear, Loathing and Market Recovery

It's down to one thing in the world we live in: FEAR. Fear of job loss, fear of survival, fear of no retirement, fear of falling values on one's home, fear of banks failing, fear of things getting worse. Take your pick, the boogeyman's out there.

If people continue to be afraid, spending on a macro scale will continue to decline which will eliminate more jobs, more companies and more stability (for as much as there even is today). The less people spend, the less likely we are to see any type of recovery in the near future. Make no mistake, I've never been much of a Keynesian when it comes to economics but these days I'm starting to wonder. For the record I'm loosely defining that as one who believes in spending our way out of a recession.

I was watching a CNN interview with Martin Wolf, a noted economist and writer for the London Financial Times. Mr. Wolf, while also a non Keynesian, stated that since we have already passed the stimulus bill and the money was going to be spent anyway, the most important thing we can do is get the money into people's hands who will actually spend it. In his opinion the biggest challenge to where we are is that the President is hell bent on the whole 'roads and bridges' philosophy which will do nothing for at least 18 months on the national economic front that in Mr. Wolf's opinion is wayyyyyyyy toooooo late. Mr. Wolf flippantly shared at one point we'd have been better off walking out and handing people money on main street than allocating it the way we have. We can have the argument on how to improve the current mess in terms of massive tax cuts versus massive spending but being where we are, spending the money properly in a way that would make things better is now the discussion. It's not one that will likely be resolved soon.

Having stated the obvious, here's sublime of the where we are. I don't know exactly when we will see a huge turn in the economy but I am convinced that right here, right now there are unprecedented opportunities for success. Opportunities in the stock market, opps in the real estate market, opps in employment in the form of new demand for different types of skills. They are out there....and in the face of fear those who have courage will change their lives for the better. Some will buy stocks, some will buy real estate, some will reinvent themselves and their personal brand and change careers and their lives forever. Some will get entangled in the fear and suffer. Some will embrace where the world is and prosper. The only question for each of us is which path will we take?

C.P. Morgan Redux

It's been most of a week since one of the nation's 30 largest home builders threw in the towel and the thoughts on what happened are still being debated. Several things seem obvious to me through the haze of frustration for the former employees and 'caught in the middle' customers of Morgan.

1) The company's press release was an out and out lie. The release stated that all homes had been completed and there were no outstanding build projects ongoing. Wrong. Numerous homes are standing unfinished and that doesn't count the people who have made lot deposits between $1000 and $4000 to begin the build process.

2) The employees were told that their health care was going to be cancelled as of midnight of 2/28. Nice. They get canned and their insurance gets cancelled with no advance warning in 48 hours. How considerate. What's still up in the air is whether ALL employees even got paid for the 13 days of the pay period in which they got gassed. As of their dismissal, they had not.

3) Does anyone now doubt that 'no down' and 'low down' payment homes with 300 lots in a development are a BAD IDEA? I worry there will be tumbleweeds blowing through some of these neighborhoods before the foreclosure monster is through. You can't sell them with no equity and the sheer quantity of properties will make it even tougher for owners who are in distress to work the short sale option.

4) I'm treading on thin ice here but I don't frankly care with the way in which people have been hurt. C.P. Morgan always prided itself as being a 'Christian' company. I'm all for people's faith, in fact it's the most important thing in my personal life. My issue is how dare a company's owner allow that type of 'marketing' or 'presentation' of his company take place and then be off in Florida buying a massive new boat while his employees are getting laid off and his customers are left in the lurch? Understand, it's not the faith, it's the abuse of faith that is unconscionable here. When I see a woman on the news saying she signed a Morgan contract because she believed they were a Christian company and then she gets burned for the previously mentioned reasons, it makes me sick.

5) If you are a Morgan homeowner, review your paperwork carefully. Understand who is repsonsible for your warranty. Get involved in your neighborhood association. The future of your neighborhood and your homes value is on the line. Don't get blindsided by being unaware of what's going on around you.

What will come of the future of Morgan's previous clients and employees remains to be seen. What is certain is that they're demise and how they handled it as a company is a burn on the trust of consumers. It's a burn that will not soon heal here or for other home buyers across the country in the wake of the current housing collapse.

...and another one gone and another one gone...another one bites the...

Well, you get the point. One of the most successful home builders in the history of Indiana is closing it's doors. This bizarre economy has claimed another victim in the corporate sense and thousands in the consumer and former employee sense. More layoffs and more peripheral pain in the industries that support housing. What ever you may think, we cannot simply blame C.P. Morgan for failing. It's WAYYYYYYY bigger than that. This is a national economic issue not isolated to this company and it's not over friends. You can see the entire Channel 13 television story with Greg here.

Gosh, sure glad the congress in all of it's infinite wisdom did something to fix housing. Oh, that's right, they didn't. We've now printed 1.5 TRILLION new dollars trying to save the economy and all we could come up with is a pissant $8000 first time home buyer tax credit that will have NO ultimate affect on the overall housing market. The $15,000 credit approved by both houses of congress was whacked by a bipartisan 'negotiating' committee whose identity was not revealed (intentionally) at the time of the signing of the stimulus package. What a load of crap. Fix housing first? What happened to that? How about let's kick housing to the curb. It is obvious now that despite the fact that a 6th grader understands how real estate leads economies into and out of recessions, our Congress and President do not understand or do not care. If we can find $150 million for honey bees we could find money to stimulate housing. Don't bother trying to tell me how honey bees need saving, I'm not arguing that....they just have NO PLACE in the stimulus.

We're not done friends. There are more challenges to come. For our friends formerly employed at C.P. Morgan and the consumers who are left in the wake, you have our significant sympathy. We're all hurting...some more than others.

Listen to the archive of Greg on WIBC, Indianapolis from 2/25.

There's been a Rod Serling sighting.

At some point it just gets off the wall silly. It would be funny if it weren't about such incredibly large sums of cash and disappearing equity. Every month feels like the last when the new housing numbers come out. More bad news. Little to be optimistic about. It certainly feels surrreal, like we've entered into our own 'Twilight Zone.'

The newest report on housing has prices of U.S. single-family homes plunging 18.5 percent in December from a year earlier as the monthly pace accelerated, according to a Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.5 percent in December from November, compared with a 2.3 percent decline in the previous period, S&P said in a statement. "There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data," David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, said in the statement. "Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path." In a separate index, home prices depreciated at a 18.2 percent pace in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, for the largest drop since the series began 21 years ago, it said. From the housing market peak in the second quarter of 2006, home prices have plummeted 26.7 percent, it said.

As for the Stimulus, don't count on that making a difference. While there was an $8000 tax credit for 1st time home buyers, the reality is congress, in all it's brilliance, totally stripped out the $15,000 tax credit that would have applied to ALL home buyers. That would have made a difference. The first time home buyer's credit, while nice, will have little effect on the overall market. So much for fixing housing first. If it's true that housing leads us into recessions and out of those same recessions, we're still waiting for the residential General to start marching back up the hill. Right now he's no where in sight.

So once again class, what does it all mean? As I've said on the radio a thousand times, it remains a great time to buy with incredible interest rates available for many home buyers. In five years you will look back and feel you've made one of the best investments of your life. Not in two years, five.

As for home sellers, lower your expectations, your prices and your uside down statues into the ground because sports fans, you're going to need all the help you can get. It is the most challenging time to sell a home since the mid 1960's. Not even the early 80's were this bad. Sure we had high interest rates but we didn't have the bank failures and the numerous other factors working against us.

Now we have excessive inventory, foreclosures, unemployment, etc., all affecting housing. There's also the inflation monster which will be sure to rear it's ugly head in the coming few years. If you can survive the moat full of monsters to buy a home right now, you may just see 2015 arrive with a pile of equity in your property. Be warned, getting there will be tough. If you look closely, you may even see Mr. Serling along the way.

[As a clarification, the stimulus package the president will sign may have an impact but not in the short term. At best I believe it will be mid 2010 before we see any potential affect on the housing market]

So What Will It Take To Sell Your Home
NOW?

The holidays have passed, the weather has broken slightly in some places and your For Sale sign is starting to look like a permanent fixture in your yard. Your impatience is growing and there seems to be no answer. But there is. Before I share the solution, you must as a home seller ask yourself the most obvious but pertinent question.

Do you really want to sell?

Not you would like to sell, maybe you want to sell, you hope to sell, you have a home you've seen that you would kinda sorta like to move up or down to.

NONE OF THESE WORKS IN THE CURRENT ERA.

If you are not 150% committed to the selling process than you are hurting yourself and wasting money. First of all, bar none, every day of unsuccessful history that your home has on the market costs you money. The initial question every buyer asks is 'how long has it been on the market?' Right there they have another tool to beat you up with in the negotiating process if the answer isn't just a short time. Do NOT forget this: If you are on the market and not selling you are hurting your own position! Get it sold or get it on the sidelines until things improve. Don't stick your big toe in the water...dive in or get out!

Still think you want to sell? Then consider the following solution. If your home has been on the market since before the holidays there is one thing you MUST do immediately.

Reduce the price today by 10%.

Not tomorrow, not next week, TODAY. The market is STILL DECLINING. If you have been on the market longer than 90 days you are less competitive today than you were in November. This is not rocket science. It's 10th grade economics. Sales occur when supply and demand meet. When someone's motivation becomes so great that they can't live without your home, they make an offer. In this market, PRICE DRIVES EVERYTHING.

"Well if they like it, they'll just make an offer." Wrong. That's what 100 other home sellers are thinking too. The problem is that the truly motivated sellers with homes equally competitive to yours have already lowered their prices twice while you've done nothing. Buyers don't have to waste time and emotional energy chasing your home when they have all of those choices from motivated sellers.

"Well those things don't apply to our home" or "our home will overcome those objections." If Ricardo Montleban was still alive he'd be saying "welcome to Fantasy Island!"

"Well it's our Realtors fault." Wrong again. By some estimates over 90% of buyers look online first and if your home is in the MLS you are probably everywhere. Buyers are seeing your home. They just don't like what they see at your price. While we can debate how your home is being marketed in it's presentation, if it's out there, people know about it.

Look, this isn't pleasant but do you want to know and act on the truth or live in the pain of make believe? This is not a market for pretenders. If you aren't adjusting your price to meet the demand of the market you are in fact pretending. That's fine....it is your money. It would just be our opinion not to waste any more of it than necessary.

Oh and by the way 10% may not work. It's possible you are farther off in your value than that and it could mean you need further reductions, especially if the market doesn't bottom out soon. Remember true value is what someone is willing to pay, NO MORE. Painful? You bet. I don't enjoy telling you this any more than you want to hear it but if you want to be lied to, this is the wrong place to come. I'd rather shoot straight with you now so you'll still respect me in the morning rather than be one of the Realtors who deceive just to get you into bed with them. They're the ones who will ultimately cost you a LOT of money.

Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734).

1143 West 116th, Carmel, Indiana.

An absolute steal, now listed at $15,000,000!

Reduced from $20,000,000!

Once appraised at $25,000,000!

Forgive the superlatives. I'm a bit overdrawn on real estate cliches although it is 'much more than a drive by.'

On the serious side, this remarkable estate which the previous owner stated has more than $35,000,000 in costs associated with it's creation is now officially listed at $15,000,000. It has 33.6 acres with the main estate and 7.6 acres in a separately parceled lot, also included. There are 25,791 square feet in the main residence that do not include the 15,000 square foot sports building, the guest house, pool house, catering hall and power building. We've had professional athletes, upper management of sports franchises, national corporate presidents and a female professional wrestler with the WWE express interest in the property. Personally, I was pulling for the lady wrestler. Few things would have provided more entertainment than the likes of Terry Hogan and Vince McMahon showing up at the gate in some 12 door Hummer limo. While we have had numerous individuals interested and offers made, this property has not closed and been accepted by a new owner. So we're telling you there's still a chance. If the $5,000,000 price reduction doesn't get your attention....maybe the 25 meter lap pool in the Master Suite will.

You may view the complete virtual tour for this home right now by clicking here: 1143 West 116th, Carmel, Indiana.

All interested parties please contact Dick Richwine or Greg Cooper at 317.558.6806.

Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734).

I Would Have Rather Started Off With A Bang....

Today's Definition From Dictionary.com:

Transparent:
/trænsˈpɛərənt, -ˈpær-/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [trans-pair-uhnt, -par-] –adjective
(two of the definitions include)
4. easily seen through, recognized, or detected.
6. open; frank; candid: the man's transparent earnestness.

Having said that, how about a little real estate transparency? We're starting off the year in a VERY challenging way. Not with a BANG...more like a whimper. Here's the market data from 1/1/08 to 1/18/08 and then the same 18 days in 2009. Quoting my good friend Robert Plant, 'The Song Remains The Same.' Great time to buy, tough time to sell.

ALL PENDING SALES FOR THE 1ST 18 days of 2008 and 2009

-

Hamilton County

2008 - 209 sales

2009- 124 sales

-31.3%

-

Marion County (Indpls. proper)

2008 - 501 sales

2009 - 413 sales

-17.6%

-

Boone County

2008 - 39 sales

2008 - 24 sales

-38%

-

Hendricks County

2008 - 89 sales

2009 - 63 sales

-29%

-

Johnson County

2008 - 102 sales

2009 - 47 sales

-54%

-

Yes, we all realize it's a short sample but last year was also down from the year prior. What this shows is that we have a LONG way to go before a recovery takes place. The only reason Marion County (Indianapolis proper) did not get banged so badly is that they got clobbered so significantly last year. Again and again and again I say: If you do not have to sell, park your home until 2010. Any questions? Please review the data above.

-

Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734)

GAME OVER.

As cultural shifts go, this was a blitzkrieg. We can all say we're shocked, amazed, saddened but this happened quicker than I had ever imagined. It's been no secret that media was shifting as print has become a dying art, but the economy has made this an occurrence of speed multiplied by 10. Tribune media has filed for bankruptcy protection that also includes their print and broadcast media outlets as well as other second tier magazines and niche hard copy products. For the love of all things Mark Cuban at least the Cubs were not included in this. This bankruptcy and it's affects are punctuated locally by the massive layoffs the Indianapolis Star announced in October .

Last month I linked a video by marketing king Gary Vanyerchuck where Gary expounds on where marketing dollars are being spent and more importantly where they are not. Gary, as usual, was dead on in his theory but gave print a bit more of a lifeline than the reality of world economics. The only question now is where and when will the other shoe drop.

I've been astounded lately by listening to both my local radio stations and networks like ESPN radio to hear with some consistency what amounts to public service announcements touting the benefits of radio advertising.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Running self serving marketing ads in the middle of the holiday season that is the broadcasting equivalent of black Friday? Absurd....and revealing. Radio is hurting badly. Television is no different. Soon you will see cut backs at the local level affecting everything from how you get your 11:00 news on T.V. to potentially what people (or lack there of) that deliver the live, local and late breaking news, weather and traffic coming out of your car radio on the way to work. Some of you won't notice because you're already on to an Ipod or Satellite radio. Hence the problem. I've been saying for years that all media is getting to be THIS < > WIDE. With the Tribune bankruptcy filing, it just got narrower.

What does this mean for Today's New World Of Real Estate? Marketing, access and transfer of properties are going to look A LOT different in the months and years to come. Open your mind Mr. and Mrs. consumer. Change has come to the real estate industry and the learning curve will be steep for you and those Brokers who represent you.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? DONATIONS? Greg@GregCooper.com or 317.848.GREG (4734)

Could
Gordon Gekko
have been right?

"Greed is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through and captures the very essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of it's forms, for life, for money, for love, for knowledge - has marked the upward surge of mankind and greed, mark my words, will not only cure Teldar paper but also that other
malfunctioning corporation known as the United States of America." -Gordon Gekko (Michael Douglas) from Wall Street, 1987

Considering the current mess on Wall Street this
is not exactly a 'feel good' diatribe from a 'feel
good' character from over 20 years ago but there's
a point here. Greed, for lack of a better word, has already begun to save the real estate market in several places across our country and ultimately will do so in every city and town in America. In California where home prices have plummeted 40% or more, home sales in units have actually increased at least in part because of greed. Yes, we would all use different identifiers here (free markets, capitalism, opportunity) but the bottom line is that Mr. Gekko had it right in one sense.

When the markets get down far enough that opportunity is present, greed takes over. Recent buyers in California are not making purchases because they're feeling altruistic. They buying for investment and personal opportunity. They're buying because the free market is working. In fact when prices fall to that tipping point in many other markets in our country, homes will begin to sell again with regularity. If we updated GG's infamous speech with the words free markets, I can almost hear that booming voice calling out the housing mess in Today's New World Of Real Estate.......

"Free markets are good. Free markets are right. Free markets work. Free markets clarify, cut through and capture the very essence of the evolutionary spirit........"

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? DONATIONS? Greg@GregCooper.com
or 317.848.GREG.

SIDE NOTE: Michael Douglass has been asked to resurrect the Gordon Gekko character for a sequel to 1987's classic picture and he's considering it. Douglass has been asked repeatedly about the current mess on Wall Street with one reporter actually questioning him in character. Douglass' reply: "I'm not Gordon. He's simply a character I played 20 years ago and if you would pay half as much attention to nuclear proliferation as Wall Street, we'd be in a much better world."

Hey
Congress.
Where's
Our
Personal
Bailout?

Apparently everyone is now unofficially eligible for applying for their 'fair share' of the bailout. Cities are doing it. Companies are doing it. Homeowners are doing it. So where's our share?

It's now obvious that any additional bailing out should be viewed and analyzed with the highest degree of skepticism. Not being able to see who's getting part of the initial $250T allotment is bad enough. Why would we trust these clowns in Congress when they have denied us total transparency on where the dollars are going. You can get the best information available at BailoutSleuth.com but don't think you're going to get the full story.

[EDIT: I am not an insensitive ass. There are people who genuinely need help in this world and as human beings we need to do what we can to help. What I'm NOT in favor are idiots who choose to be victims and exploit the system. Let them eat cake.]

Again...where's my personal bailout?

GM, Ford and Chrysler are an absolute joke asking for a bailout. First, they're paying their workers an average of $78 per hour in total costs and benefits adding over $2000 per car to the expense. Toyota pays only $36 per hour for the same product and is subsequently kicking our clueless American butts in the auto industry. Next, you have industry executives like the president of GM who made $15.1 million dollars last year sitting in front of Congress asking for a bailout. Absurd. This is the same guy who thinks the Cadillac Escalade is a mass appeal product getting about 11 miles per gallon. Give it up big 3. You're in way to deep to recover. You don't get it and it's too late to change. A financial reorganization is the only way for you to go. Get rid of the costs and start building cars that are financially competitive again. Yes I have empathy for the workers but they're toast anyway if there's not a complete reorganization of the auto industry. Stop asking for a bailout and do something about the mess YOU'VE created.

Meanwhile I'll ask the question again. Where's my personal bailout? Perhaps my national trade organization who keeps saying 'it will get better very soon" will get off their sunshine and butterfly back sides and get us Realtors a bailout.........NOT.

Questions? Comments? Donations?
317.848.GREG (4734) or Greg@GregCooper.com

Culture Anyone?

This weekend marks the 11th anniversary of the Carmel
International Arts Festival in Carmel, Indiana.

For starters, here's a hint: Get there before 10:00 a.m. on Saturday morning if you want to see the Chinese Dragon Troup in parade formation. It's a highlight.

When this festival began I remember buying a beautiful sweatshirt that had the festival's logo on it and sure enough when I wore it through Midway Airport, I got numerous questions about Clint Eastwood, Sony Bono and what other famous people did I see around town?

Sorry, that's the other Carmel. Pronounced differently with more water.

In fact, for a FREE festival that has come from nothing but a brainchild, this gathering is a great way to spend a Fall Indiana afternoon. With hundreds of
vendors exhibiting in watercolor, oil, 2D, jewelry, photography, 3D, wood, sculpture, pottery and more, it's a remarkably full art event. The Indianapolis area has Penrod which takes place on the grounds of the
Indianapolis Museum of
Art around Labor Day but for $15 to $20 a pop for admission, frankly it's gotten expensive. If you want a day of wandering booths, galleries
and stores with no pressure, great art, food and people watching, take a trip this weekend to the corner of Main Street and Rangeline in Carmel, INDIANA. While there may not be sand or famous celebrities (unless you count Sony Bono from BEECH GROVE), you will find a totally relaxing way to spend your time and possibly
diminish that credit line a bit.

Fannie, Freddie, Whatever it takes.

So Warren Buffet thinks it's a great idea. Frankly that's about good enough for me. So does the Dick Vitale of money, Jim Cramer at CNBC. In fact just about anyone you ask today is in favor of the government take over at the two lending giants Fannie May and Freddie Mac. While it would have been best that they not have to be dealt with in this way, the take over saves millions from foreclosure, nudges the real estate market forward and probably saves a run on one or several other lending insitutions.

For those of you who have their fannies and freddies confused, here's the simple version of who they are and why they matter.
Fanniemae and Freddie Mac, are the largest loan guarantors in the country. They are responsible, essentially, for the health of the loan mortgage market in the United States. They have nothing to do with a semi sweet box of chocolate or a deceased rock star.


They do have a significant impact on the health of the U.S. housing market and subsequently the American public as a whole. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com predicted that 30-year mortgage rates, currently averaging 6.35 percent nationwide, could dip to close to 5.5 percent. That's because investors will be more willing to buy the debt issued by Fannie and Freddie -- and at lower rates -- since the federal government is now explicitly standing behind that debt.

"Effectively, the federal government has now become the nation's mortgage lender," he said. "This takes a major financial threat off the table."

Friends, if conventional mortgage rates begin to move towards a 5.5% rate from the mid 6% rates were seeing today, the faint light we've been imagining to see at the end of the tunnel will start to get brighter. Do not for one second think that this will cure all of our ills. There are still too many foreclosures both in the Indianapolis area AND nationwide for that to be the case. There is still far too much resale inventory for that to be the case. There is still a total trepidation among buyers that they are paying too much that won't go away anytime soon.

It will, however, add hope....which may be the most important factor in determining the direction of the market in 2009.