Admiral James Stockdale and The Aqua-Holic.....


I know....I know....stop being so negative Greg. Listen, I want things to be better.....a LOT better but overcoming an enormous fall like our financial markets took last year will take time and some discomfort. It's not that we aren't better off...we are but we're not yet going up yet. I believe we must be 100% forthright in our assessments of where things are if we want to have credibility with consumers. So (doing my best Forrest Gump), we're less bad and that's good.

You see it everyday....the rush to proclaim the next big thing. Whether it's a super star athlete, a sports team that's going to be a champion or the news media on announcing our economy in recovery. Everybody wants to be first to tell the story and why not? Everyone wants to hear good news and be associated with a positive tale. Considering that my business (real estate) has constantly been accused of spinning information to benefit our industry I'm just not going there. We are better off than a year ago and some positive signs are out there but let's not forget that unemployment is still at staggering levels and all of the money that's been spent to stimulate, massage, invigorate, caress and boost our economy will eventually have to be paid back. The way you do that is by raising interest rates and taxes, neither of which is going to grow an economy. In essence things are better....with an asterisk which means that we have quite a ways to go. In the meantime appreciate those things that truly matter in your life because there's a lot of pain and challenge for many of our fellow Americans. Oh....and if you are going to be in the real estate market, make it about a place to benefit and enhance the lives of you and your families. The days of looking at home ownership like a quick buck artist are over. It's time we all started looking at things with a bit more perspective...and it starts with those of us who are directly involved in the process.

**Greg will be on 93.1 FM, WIBC on Monday March 29th talking the latest live, local and late breaking housing numbers to be released 3/29!! (streaming @ www.wibc.com)


Remember 10th grade economics....where simple supply and demand ruled the day? Here are a few thoughts on supply and demand relative to value in Today's New World of Real Estate:

C.P. Morgan Redux

It's been most of a week since one of the nation's 30 largest home builders threw in the towel and the thoughts on what happened are still being debated. Several things seem obvious to me through the haze of frustration for the former employees and 'caught in the middle' customers of Morgan.

1) The company's press release was an out and out lie. The release stated that all homes had been completed and there were no outstanding build projects ongoing. Wrong. Numerous homes are standing unfinished and that doesn't count the people who have made lot deposits between $1000 and $4000 to begin the build process.

2) The employees were told that their health care was going to be cancelled as of midnight of 2/28. Nice. They get canned and their insurance gets cancelled with no advance warning in 48 hours. How considerate. What's still up in the air is whether ALL employees even got paid for the 13 days of the pay period in which they got gassed. As of their dismissal, they had not.

3) Does anyone now doubt that 'no down' and 'low down' payment homes with 300 lots in a development are a BAD IDEA? I worry there will be tumbleweeds blowing through some of these neighborhoods before the foreclosure monster is through. You can't sell them with no equity and the sheer quantity of properties will make it even tougher for owners who are in distress to work the short sale option.

4) I'm treading on thin ice here but I don't frankly care with the way in which people have been hurt. C.P. Morgan always prided itself as being a 'Christian' company. I'm all for people's faith, in fact it's the most important thing in my personal life. My issue is how dare a company's owner allow that type of 'marketing' or 'presentation' of his company take place and then be off in Florida buying a massive new boat while his employees are getting laid off and his customers are left in the lurch? Understand, it's not the faith, it's the abuse of faith that is unconscionable here. When I see a woman on the news saying she signed a Morgan contract because she believed they were a Christian company and then she gets burned for the previously mentioned reasons, it makes me sick.

5) If you are a Morgan homeowner, review your paperwork carefully. Understand who is repsonsible for your warranty. Get involved in your neighborhood association. The future of your neighborhood and your homes value is on the line. Don't get blindsided by being unaware of what's going on around you.

What will come of the future of Morgan's previous clients and employees remains to be seen. What is certain is that they're demise and how they handled it as a company is a burn on the trust of consumers. It's a burn that will not soon heal here or for other home buyers across the country in the wake of the current housing collapse.

Henry Paulson's Magic Act

This week Secretary Paulson did what many thought would happen and what many hoped wouldn't happen.

He changed the game.

In announcing this week that the bailout was not going to support distressed mortgage assets to stabilize the housing market, good old Hank picked up that giant crystal ball known as the American economy and shook it up. Now instead of having a bailout that our good friend Jim Cramer promised us could potentially pay us back in full, we have a quagmire that most certainly has encouraged every conceivable entity from the City of Detroit (and others) to General Motors to ask for a personal bailout. In essence our friend Mr. Paulson has taken the bailout and started moving it around under the three cups much like the carnival barker. Many had hoped for calm after the passage of the bailout. Many had hoped for stability. Nope. Now we have just about as much fear and loathing as a financial market could have. Pardon my curtness but what it in the hell were they thinking?

I have said numerous times over the last month I'd give anything for the stock market not to go up or down more than 100 points per day over an entire week. So much for that pipe dream.

In Today's New World of Real Estate stability sells. Fear and uncertainty do not. While many of us hoped that with the presidential election behind us there would be hope and a desire to move forward in our country, what we have is another step into the muck that will most certainly be with us for years to come. With the October home sales stats due out soon, we're going to get a first hand glimpse of exactly how far into the muck we've stepped.

Of course my national trade organization has smiled and sailed happily along with chief economist Lawrence Yun proclaiming this week that Indiana was primed for a quick turnaround based on housing affordability and good employement rates. This was the same clown that told us in January of '08 that things would be better by the summer of '08. Mr. Yun I'm begging you ....just stop talking. As our mothers told us often in our younger years, if you don't have something nice to say.....

Questions? Comments? Donations? Greg@GregCooper.com 317.848.GREG (4734)